Vision Scenarios
Coming from an intersectional feminist background, values make up an integral part of the DNA of SUPERRR Lab. We are constantly trying to improve the integration of feminist values into our daily work, such as equity, diversity, creativity and curiosity. Values also play an integral role in the process of working with futures. Not only in our own futuring processes, but generally speaking. Most of the time though, such values are not made explicit. In the everyday futures scenarios by governments or corporations that surround us or the images and stories we see in sci-fi movies, values take up much space, mainly behind the scenes.
Just think of the glossy "AI" futures currently being promoted in many areas of society. They depict an automated, seamless and frictionless future of work, consumption or creative output. These futures build on values such as efficiency, productivity, rationality, technological progress, hegemonic power structures (#singularity), economic growth or convenience consumerism. Or take the sci-fi series Star Trek: The Galactic Federation, which is basically the United Nations charter put into space, putting a strong emphasis on humanitarianism, equality, diversity, or individual freedom and rights. Even though both these examples strongly rely on values at their core, they are only made explicit sometimes. This might be due to a near-instinctive skill that we all possess, implicitly noticing values when we come across them. But especially with dominant narratives such as the mentioned future of "AI", values that drive this future are often taken as a given and usually not openly discussed or criticized, leaving little room for altering them.
With our SUPERRR Critiquing Futures approach, we developed a way to approach such dominant futures and deconstruct them from an intersectional and decolonial perspective. However, in working towards value-based digitization, futures work is also a lot about building new, alternative futures. Therefore, we needed an approach that allows for explicitly using values as a base for future scenarios and visions. So, we can explicitly decide what values we want to take shape in our common futures and which we don't.
Vision Scenarios
SUPERRR Lab's vision scenarios approach aims to do precisely that. With this method, we link more traditional scenario work with specific values to create narratives about desirable and value-based alternative futures. Vision scenarios are not predictions, concrete policies, or strategies. Instead, they aim to create new hypotheses, alternative perspectives, and expectations about possible, value-based, desirable futures. With some additional steps, they can be transformed into strategies or used as inspiration for new policy drafts.
For building these vision scenarios, we usually ask participants to either
decide on 1-2 values they cherish and want to see become reality in a future set 15-100 years from now.
Or we offer them to choose 1-2 values from our Feminist Tech Principles, which lay out a value framework for a value-based digitization.
After discussing their value choices with other participants, they continue sketching their vision scenario by answering the following question:
“What does a future in the year x look like, where your values are a lived reality?”
The output of this exercise can be in text, images, or other expressive formats as long as it describes the value scenario and enables others to get an idea about it.
What are the next steps?
Dreaming and opening up the space for imagining desirable futures can be a very powerful tool in and of itself. We sometimes end our workshops by presenting the different vision scenarios, discussing the values used, and how they support this scenario. Often, though, everyone is eager to think about how these desirable futures can become reality and what steps are needed to reach them. In this case, we use the backcasting method from traditional futuring playbooks:
In predefined steps (usually steps of 5-10 years, depending on the overall time frame), participants consider the prerequisites needed for their vision scenario to become reality.
We usually use the PESTLE-categories to group the prerequisites: political, economic, social, technical, legal, environmental. These can obviously be adapted to different needs.
The different prerequisites are discussed, grouped, and, in the end, presented to the group.
Several methods can link to this stage of the workshop. One can, for example, use the News from the Future method for participants to further flesh out their vision scenario, writing a newspaper article on how this future came into being. Another can use the results of the backcasting to feed into more granular strategy processes looking at the next ten years.
Focus on those values!
From working with vision scenarios, we have learned that focusing on values is essential when building alternative futures around technology. In some areas of the tech world, values fortunately play an increasing role, for example, in AI ethics. However, as ethics mainly focus on the present, it is crucial to include values when approaching (tech) futures. This is necessary when we want to strive towards value-based digitization, where power structures are dismantled, discrimination is kept at bay, and sustainability aspects are the norm.
For a simple workshop process overview, see here.